Go take a look at the Dow chart with a 50 year perspective, take note of deflation signs all around you, weakening economies, mounting calls for protectionism, cuts in capex spending at most multinational companies, and forget about the garbage you hear on CNBC. This is a macro trend, and we are in a bear market.
Bailouts, rate cuts, stimulus programs and all nice speeches are there to make the landing softer. (And it's been working admirably so far by judging the majority of bulls...)
Many folks on Wall Street have been convinced that Asia is at a bottom. If so, why are real estate prices continuing to spiral downwards in Japan ? Why is Tokyo introducing a voucher system for families and the elderly ? Why are we seeing negative interest rates ?
Remember, the recession in Japan was officially announced in June. Since then, their economy has deteriorated considerably.
People making the case for a bottom in Asia, Cramer among others, argue that the Japanese are dealing efficiently with their bank problems, and that Obuchi, surprisingly, is a leader. In short, the Japanese have suddenly mutated, and become just like Americans... they will lay off thousands and restructure... This view is total HS.
The Japanese are Japanese, and they will restructure as fast as their economy deteriorates.
Growth in Japan will only resume when banks stop lending money to dead beat companies in favor of healthy ones. This is, at best a few months down the road. In the meantime, expect more bad news from Japan and Asia, and continuing deflationary pressures. |
