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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options

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To: HairBall who wrote (57322)	11/12/1998 8:37:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (4) of 58727

I'm no Guru that's for sure but I'll post to you so you don't feel so lonely. <g> I think there are just too many unknowns right now between the Iraq build up for Desert Shield/Storm II the sequel and the FOMC meeting. The charts look like bull flags which would imply a continuation of this upswing as my indicators are dropping quickly while the market itself is staying fairly stable thus far. I believe we are in a channel that extends from the first stair step we were in back in September. I have us near the top of that channel and trading sideways leaving more room up as time goes by due to the upward sloping lines. We have support below us from a continuation of the top of the neckline drawn from the highs of 10 June and 31 Aug on the OEX which now is around 548 and he bottom of the channel around 530. My actual indicator is at 57 which is in the middle of the range and dropping however connecting the bottoms of my indicator seem to imply a turn fairly soon which is why Don may be expecting an upswing around the FOMC meeting. I think a lot depends on what the Fed does as to what the market will do. As for plays, who knows. With the Iraq stuff going on, I figured oil might be a play but it is falling right now. If you were willing to be a contrarian and Iraq does heat up, it could get you a few days pop since oil seemed to pop when we played games over there before. No rush IMO though since it will take a few days to get planes in place etc. DELL reports today and CNBC reported they might miss so life could get interesting. DELL never misses but if they did, they could be the INTC of last October that sparked the down turn. Asia is looking weak again as Japan is flirting with 14K on their reform news and Korea, HK are also slipping. Brazil and China devaluations are also lurking in the shadows. We have been ignoring bad news the last couple weeks and as earnings fade and we start approaching the time where other news has to take over, I don't see much good news out there. I actually think we could be nearing a top soon. BWTHDIK, I have to go to work now. Lee

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