I've no doubt, that TR 3 will be the absolute smash hit
in the coming Xmas sales season. With the official announcement that
TR 3 will hit shelves by November 20 (which is declared the official
"Lara day" by EIDSYs marketing people) even the critics of EIDSY should admit that the developers at Core Design have done great job to be exactly on shedule. I expect EIDSY to outsell even TR 2 given the increasing popularity of Lara and the growing number of Playstations and PCs with 3D cards. TR 3could sell 7 mill. copies, which would certainly mean earnings over 2 $ a share for EIDSY in their current fiscal year. So, if you agree that a PE of 20 is reasonable for such a high profile growth company like EIDSY, you'll know what a fair valuation should mean for the stockprice ;-)
In my opinion there is currently no computer game in the market that could steal Lara's show. C&C 3 has been delayed until next year (I heard Diablo 2 also). The direct competitor to TR from LucasArts called Indiana Jones 5 (also features 3rd person action adventure, uses the improved Jedi Knight 3D engine) is not expected for release before March 99, and the others so called action adventures (5th Element form UBI Soft, O.D.T. from Psygnosis) are only mediocre TR-clones and not more (graphics and storyline of these products can't compete with TR). Heretic form ATVI? -Quite nice product, but again the storyline is nothing to compare with TR, and the past has shown, that 3rd person "sword and sorcery games" like Die by the sword from Interplay or Deathtrap Dungeon from EIDSY were far away from the brilliance of TR and these titles only achived modest sales.
I remain extremely confident on EIDSY, the TR franchise is still growing at high levels and the brand name Lara Croft is in my opinion the most valuable in the whole electronic entertainment industry.
With the TR series, EIDSY has a strong revenue stream for the years to come (next year we will see TR 4 together with the release of the TR movie which will generate even more hype regarding Lara). So it's not overly optimistic that the year 99 can see with TR 4 the first game that sells over 10 mill. copies (but for now, let's first see this year Xmas sales)
Kai |
