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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 234.19

-2.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (40839)	11/12/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (2) of 53903

I have no idea if we'll see $60 any time soon. The main point of my prior post is that it is not out of the question. When memory prices are unfavorable, MU can lose money, as they did the last two quarters. When memory prices are favorable, they can make a lot. EPS of up to $6 a share are not hard to imagine. If the DRAM business always sucked like it has the last couple years, why would Korea or Tiawan want to get into the business at all, much less stake billions of dollars on it? The answer of course is that it is a cyclical business and cyclical businesses have good times as well as bad. The key to investing in cyclical businesses is to buy them when things look terrible and look like they will never get any better, and to sell them when things look great and things look like they will be great forever. This is kind of a bizarre way of thinking, and requires a special mind set, which is why a lot of people who invest in (or bet against) cyclical businesses lose money. Carl

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