I am still confused.
I checked my notes on the August call, and my notes indicate that Lev said the company could breakeven on cash flow from 3000 cells per day. When I first analyzed that, I assumed he meant batteries, and have used that in my posts since. In this call, he said 1800 cells per day, lowering the bar even further. If he mis-spoke, he's mis-spoke twice. I think its possible he did mean 'cells'.
If we believe Lev (and I do), then this is incredibly bullish. He's essentially said the company can breakeven at a very low production rate, i.e. only about 200,000 three-cell batteries per year. The market for original batteries supplied in portable computers will be about 14-15 million units in 1999, so this is a pretty small market share.
Incidentally, most computer makers need the higher voltages along with higher battery lives, so they use three cells. It may be possible to run a computer on the lower voltages associated with a two cell battery, but I don't think this is common.
Regarding production line samples to OEMs; he's always said 'no' before, so a 'no comment' this time is interesting.
Paul |
