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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology
STX 275.77+10.1%4:00 PM EST
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To: accountclosed who wrote (6312)11/12/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (2) of 7841
 
Antoine, you wrote:

To me price prediction is a hazardous game. It is not that I am criticizing you and then cowardly not offering my prediction. There is a message in my lack of prediction. I don't believe I can do it.

My opinion is nobody can do it, and I feel quite strongly about this. If there is a fortune to be made in “trading” it is by those that profit from transactions not from those putting up the capital. It is an attractive nuisance at best and a destructive compulsion at worst. It is gambling without the complimentary cocktails. And the worst part of it is that it is completely unnecessary. You don't need to catch every 10% up and down move to get rich from the ownership of equities. It is very likely that you will miss the profitable moves since they tend to come when least expected.

Here's my prediction on Seagate: I don't know where it will be next month or even next year, but I think there is a darn good chance that in about 5 years, more or less, the shares of Seagate will trade between $70 and $90. From today's price level that would mean a yearly compounded return of between 19% and 25%. If I could do that well with all of my investments you would soon be reading about me in Barron's Roundtable. Me next to Jimmy Rogers! Now that's a revolting thought.

-Robert

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