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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD

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To: JHR who wrote (5334)	11/12/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) of 14427

JHR, the vitamin/health food makers are still living under the sentiment that worse time will come. The perceptions are: 1. Price competition (been 3-4 months since GNCI announced price cut but their profit margin still holding up. Will they keep their margin in the next few quarters??) 2. Year end tax loss selling pressure. 3. Growth rate will slow down next year (this one is purely based on the fact that what goes up must come down - their growth rate probably peaked this year but there is room for a lot more growth going forward as aging population and health conscious rich young puppies want to look and feel good. We are talking about growth down from 30% to 20-25%. 4. There are plenty of time to bottom fish this group. I currently have NBTY and RXSD but both hedged and may be called next week. Don't follow your company per se but I know it is a fine company when compared to RXSD, TWLB, NBTY, GNCI. HERBA may also worth taking a look although they are just a distributor, not manufacturer. PRMS - bought @ 12 9/16, sold call right away. Hope to get called next week.

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