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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology

STX 275.77

+10.1%

Nov 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: David Jones who wrote (6320)	11/12/1998 3:52:00 PM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (1) of 7841

David Jones; Well, a night on the town is always a good reality check. I hope yours was worthwhile. After all we can't spend all of our time making money. Sometimes, spending it is better fun. I was curious about Japan because I wouldn't put a dime into that country right now. Their banking system has been bankrupt since the late seventies and they've managed to cover it up because their industrial system's exports carries the country. If they were to admit the full truth I think there really would be a worldwide financial crisis. They can't put through meaningful legislation until this becomes public knowledge and the extent of it is disclosed, much like our savings and loan scandal. Until then, they will be doing what they have always done. Adding on patchwork legislation and trying to save face. A big thing in Asia. (It gets more difficult every year.) Life is sometimes comic. Their situation is well known in all of the financial communities throughout the world and Japanese know they know it too. Yet everyone pretends that it really isn't so. I guess, everyone for their own reasons, would like to see them get out of this one gracefully but there is no way out. Their banks have squandered the wealth of a nation with bad investments and bad loans and poor regulation. How can they cover that up? Imagine the Yen going back to 1000 to the dollar as in the fifties and bank holidays in a country that has the best savings rate in the world. It will happen sooner or later. Talking about making predictions. Let's all hope we are out of the market altogether, when the sh hits the fan. Even our fundamentalists. Because its going to be baaaad, baby, real bad. We won't need an IMF or World Bank we'll need another Marshall Plan. They'll be happy to get rice for their cars and we'll be happy if the Treasury Market doesn't collapse from lack of liquidity. You can't float your paper if there is no one there to buy in. It could be worse than Pearl Harbor. Is it any wonder why the market trudges on? We are all waiting for the axe to fall and it will. If anything can bring an end to our bull market Japan can. That's about as fundamental as you can get. How's that for a doomsday prediction! I think its fun. If I'm wrong no harm done and if I'm right I can say I knew all along. I'm sure I will be rightously castigated for this one. PHOTOMAN

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