Bruce,
Jerry Bishop in an 8 March 1994 Wall Street Journal article wrote: "A number of companies, however, are champing at the bit to market new H. pylori tests that are quicker and simpler. The potential U.S. market for such tests is $50 million to $70 million a year, estimates Quidel Corp., a producer of medical diagnostic tests in San Diego."
I don't know how Quidel came up with its estimate, but considering that approximately five million people in the U.S. develop ulcers a year and a rapid test costs somewhere around $10, then the market would be about $50 million a year.
Many studies overwhelmingly indicate that H. pylori is a factor in the development of stomach cancer and the World Health organization has classified H. pylori a Category 1 carcinogen.
If Quidel based its market potential on testing ulcer patients only, then the market is only about five million people in the U.S.
If the CDC recommends diagnosing and eradicating H. pylori to reduce the risk of developing stomach cancer, then the market is a few hundred million people in the U.S., since over 30 percent of the U.S. population has H. pylori.
This means the market would be more than 40 times the $50 million market Quidel estimated in 1994. That's two billion dollars in the U.S. alone. Think this is a stretch? Well, how much do we spend for pap, prostrate, and mammogram tests, or the traditional treatment for ulcers?
It doesn't take a super computer to figure out what affect testing everyone for H. pylori would have on Quidel's earnings.
Mike |
