Regardless of the quality of its products, Microsoft has plenty of SQL Server sites out there, and will continue to. I spoke to a development manager at GE Capital yesterday whose group is building intranet apps. They have plenty of Oracle databases as the back ends, but there are lots more SQL Server 6.5 databases. GE Capital has a corporate wide deal with Microsoft so a new SQL Server installation costs them nothing. Oracle is still "expensive" (his word). All told, however, he sees no rush to embrace SQL Server 7. I guess this is some validation of the survey Oracle commissioned.
I see no threat to Microsoft's consumer desktop headlock, unless the paradigm changes dramatically (right now the only contender, if you want to call it that, is an Internet Computer appliance). The Halloween memo seems to confirm what many in Corporate IT have been saying all along, Microsoft gets entrenched not by providing better solutions but by undermining alternatives. Once the consumer and corporate OS product lines merge with Windows 2000, it will be harder for Microsoft to address both markets without seriously shortchanging one of them. I would guess that it is the home user who will pay the price as their only alternative is an iMac. Windows will be more complicated, harder to use and still shipped with every PC made.
I am also surprised to see how Microsoft is not capitalizing on its investments in "related" businesses. WebTV is going nowhere. I have a client who wants to get internet service from his Microsoft-owned cable company and they can't even tell him when, if ever, they plan to make it available. Now there a rumors that Microsoft is thinking of buying Qualcomm. All they are managing to do is make larger and larger companies, that have more experience and are much more savvy (look at the media companies in ProComp), view Microsoft as the enemy. Bill might be able to beat back software competition by buying them out or freezing them with FUD. He can keep hardware manufacturers in line by threatening to withhold his OS. Microsoft is no match, however, for a multi-pronged assault from the media, consumer electronics and telecom giants. They better start paying more attention to the toes they are stepping on.
A DOJ settlement or verdict that splits MS into an OS and an apps company would probably turn out to be the best for Microsoft in the long run. With a real need to compete for business on the quality of its offerings, the product line will have to improve or the company will be passed by.
-Michael |
