Malaysia Threatens to Deploy Air Force Fighters if Singapore Violates Airspace
I'd be interested in hearing comments from anyone who's located in this area.
Emory
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Subject: Malaysia/Singapore
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1998 18:15:11 -0600 (CST)
From: alert@stratfor.com
To: alert@stratfor.com
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Try the Asia Intelligence Update
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Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
November 13, 1998
Malaysia Threatens to Deploy Air Force Fighters if Singapore Violates Airspace
On November 10, the "Utusan Malaysia" newspaper reported that the Malaysian Defense Minister, Datuk Sri Syed Hamid Albar, said Malaysia would deploy the Royal Malaysian Air Force fighter jets if there are encroachments into Malaysian air space by the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF). He insisted that the Malaysian government would not compromise on issues concerning the country's security and sovereignty. In short, "the government had taken various measures to act against such encroachments" including having "acquired an air defense radar system which is capable of immediately tracing aircraft which encroach into Malaysian air space." The Defense Minister, in winding up the debate on the 1999 budget for his ministry at the House of Representatives today, reported at least seven intrusions by RSAF aircraft since the airspace restrictions were put in place on September 18.
Relations between Malaysia and Singapore have been deteriorating rapidly since this summer. The tension began in August, during a disagreement over the location of a railway border crossing between the two countries. In September, tension increased following a release of an auto-biography by Singapore's elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew, in which he criticized Malaysia for fomenting the 1964 race riots. In response to these charges, Malaysia terminated on September 18 -- two days later -- the special privilege it had extended to the Singapore military planes to use its airspace.
Within one week of the revocation, Singapore's rescue helicopters were denied access to Malaysian airspace, which they requested in order to conduct a search for a missing British pilot, whose helicopter crashed during a joint Singapore-Britain naval exercise in South China Sea off the east coast of Malaysia. Because the rescuers skirted around Malaysian airspace in reaching the scene of the crash, 12 vital minutes were lost; and the British pilot was not rescued. Malaysia finally issued a permit four hours after it had been requested. Due to the fact that a British pilot died, this situation has attracted international concern.
The heart of the problem lies not merely in a dispute over airspace or sovereignty. It is more of an example of how the Asian economic crisis is spilling over into the realm of politics. Malaysia is about to become the focus of world attention because of the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held this weekend. Malaysia is both an avowed opponent of the U.S. sponsored reforms that the IMF has imposed in order to bail Asia out of the crisis and a staunch supporter of the Japanese plan of an Asian economic bloc based on regional currency controls and stabilization packages. Singapore, on the other hand, having fared relatively well during the crisis has almost whole-heartedly backed the U.S. plan. Adding to the tension between the two countries is the fact that Singapore is appalled over the poor treatment to which Anwar Ibrahim has been subjected.
By restricting Singapore's use of its airspace, Malaysia is indicating that saber rattling can amount to economics by other means. In other words, by closing off its airspace and threatening to shoot down violators, Malaysia is sending Singapore a signal that it has another option in pressuring Singapore into the Japanese bloc that doesn't involve using banks, currency controls, and financial pressure. In a wider context, Singapore and Malaysia are both part of ASEAN, and a further breakdown in relations between the two countries could have significant impact on the future of that structure. Note well that Singapore has a number of significant defense agreements with the U.S., among which is an agreement to provide U.S. Navy ships with bases for refueling. Should this conflict between Singapore, a bastion of seaborne international commerce, and Malaysia, a proponent of regional solutions to the international economic crisis, become more intense, it is possible that the U.S. would be drawn into a conflict between these two countries.
The British pilot, who died, in part, due to a botched search and rescue operation, was but the first casualty in the diplomatic spat between the two countries. All the repercussions from this incident have not occurred. Should Singapore attempt to test the resolve of the Malaysian Air Force, the next incident may lead to a resolution of their economic differences through other, potentially, military means.
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