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Technology Stocks : Avtel Communication (AVCO)
AVCO 2.020-2.9%Nov 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: Kevin McKenzie who wrote (17)11/12/1998 10:39:00 PM
From: Don Edgerton  Read Replies (1) of 461
 
Not a short squeeze as who would be short this stock at 2 and I believe that stocks under $5.00 are not marginable which is a requirement for shorting.

I suspect the following scenario. Most owners own it at a loss. They had just about given up. Volume down to nothing. Somebody sees the news releases and starts the buying. A lot of buyers with no supply. The MM has to keep increasing the bid to gain supply. Soes traders get in out and back in. Meantime the long term holders were at work not even dreaming their stock would recover. Tonight they will see that they can get out and a lot will sell. Big supply tomorrow.

One news release misinterpreted the AVCO news release. It said nothing of an "avtel modem" or nationwide rollout as one report implied. GTE is marketing SDL as can others as the modems become available. Barriers to entry for the consumer - high cost of sdl modem and high cost of service "starts at $30/month. Only useful withing 3 miles of telephone exchange. How many potential customers within 3 miles of the exchanges in Santa Barbara abd the other two cities. Not a lot I expect.

If a nationwide roll out were contemplated where would they get the capital.

This is a case or trading on no information other than the stock is going up and I had better get on.

I hope it goes to $50 so I can try to short it. What a trade 50 back to or 4 so.
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