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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (8670)11/13/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
For all of you worried about a recession next year we have the following. The "FWN" means Futures World News for those interested. Jeff

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COMERICA: RECESSION WATCH INDEX HOLDS STEADY IN OCTOBER

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Detroit-Nov. 13-FWN--THE RECESSION WATCH INDEX COMPILED by Comerica Bank, which forecasts the likelihood of a national recession occurring within the next 12 months, registered a 39% probability in October, indicating there will be no recession next year. The index has held steady at 39% probability for five months.

"While our index is not signaling a recession in the coming year, it is forecasting that economic growth will continue moderating in the coming quarters," Comerica Economist William T. Wilson, Ph.D., said today.

Comerica's Recession Watch Index is designed to forecast an economic slowdown or recession well in advance, using a weighted average of three leading indicators: spread in the yield curve, adjusted bank reserve growth and the Commerce Department's Index of Leading Indicators.

The index dates back 25 years and has never failed to forecast a recession, nor has it ever given a false signal. The Recession Watch Index last offered an advance prediction of a recession in July 1989, and a recession followed in 1990-91.
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