Tero:
Please stop the BS. Growth rates are important when compared against a meaningful historical metric. If the growth rate of GSM's worldwide user installed base accelerates from 20% to 25%, that is an analytically meaningful metric. In contrast, the North American GSM market is so nascent that the launch of a handful of new carriers will profoundly effect year-over-year comparative growth rates. Going from one subscriber to five is pretty heady growth, but statistically irrelevant.
Obviously then such comparative statistics are subject to bias and promotional interpretation depending on your point of advocacy. If you want to be intellectually honest, you need to look at the deployed geographies and attempt to compare the competitive dynamics at a micro level in order to attempt to calibrate who is winning and who is losing. You know this of course, but it is easier to sling hyperbole than to build a spreadsheet and research the topic.
Let me ask you this..there will be something north of 20mm CDMA subscribers by year-end. Given GSM's head start, purported manufacturing economies of scale, and yes..Nokia's wonderful phones..doesn't every single CDMA subscriber represent marketshare lost by GSM? I mean, in the absence of Qualcomm, wouldn't GSM have been ubiquitous? Why, given all of GSM's advantages, as anyone at all deployed such an economically bankrupt technology as IS-95? Oh yeah..everyone who doesn't use GSM just wants to go bankrupt..I forgot.
You remain the master of ducking tough questions. You throw 3G around as though you really understand its implications, but cannot explain specifically the deployment merit of W-CDMA over cdma2000. You act as though the move to W-CDMA is a victory for the Europeans instead of a capitulation to direct sequence spread spectrum...my God...it was people like you who expected Columbus to sail off the end of the earth. But of course you haven't reread any of your postings to the Frezza Forum lately have you? Quite an analytical track record you had there!
By the way, although I realize that I am wasting my electronic breadth, please specifically identify the "5-6 CDMA operators" that have had a "surprising fall" in subscriber numbers. Do you stay up nights inventing this stuff?
Gregg |
