Earlie, I know you are busy. I read the latest Tech Review and it took some time to prepare. And I mentioned on this thread that despite all the good poop in the body of the newsletter, I always read the disclaimer first. Whichever one of you guys thought that up deserves a pat on the humeris. <G> One of my fellow analyst friends at Waddell and Reed used to write huge tomes about the companies he followed. About 3/4s of the way through, he would make a note that he would give a dollar to anyone who had reached that point. The only one who ever collected was the Chairman of the co., Ben Korschott. Nobody usually reads disclaimers.
We have had fun baiting the bulls who dared to show up over here, but they showed us how shallow the understanding level is out there in the land of the blundering herd. Yes, chip sales are up, but there is no sell-through whatsoever. So, this miracle quarter simply becomes next quarter's inventory correction. In all honesty, I think the bulls consider sales by Intel and Micron as real indicators. But they are only real when there is end demand and there is none. Business spending is getting clocked. The reasons I suspect are Y2K and the general turn down in profit growth. Other managements are trying to bull their profits the same way Intel is, and cutting IT spending is an easy if short term solution. They are going to have perform an angioplasty in the channel next quarter.
The place I see Greenspan's contribution is in the resurgence of the goofy IPO market. Easy money is being spent in foolish ways. And this is the public tip of the iceberg. How many other stupid speculations with this newly printed paper are people making that are only known about in private?
I like your term, rearguard action. Greenspan's reckless printing reeks of Marshal Murat cooking cavalry horses on the Grande Arme's retreat from Moscow. Yes, it builds moral to eat a nice Clydesdale burger when you are starving in the cold, but it doesn't help the boys with sabers the next time the Russkies attack. <G>
Keep up the good work.
MB |
