Hey Gregor...
Interesting article, but purely a work of pseudo geo-political analysis.
There are so many holes in that analysis I don't know where to begin. However, the predominant issues are that Hussein is not a fool.
He may, or may not, have chemical or biological weapons stashed away somewhere. But if his whole goal were to take out the nation of Israel, I suggest that his invasion of Kuwait was a stupid way of maintaining the element of surprise.
Nope.. no one but a fool messes with a nation that openly is acknowledged to possess at least 10, if not upwards of several hundred nuclear devices, so attacking Israel with WOMD (weapons of mass destruction... god!! I'm sick of that term), would be tantamount to suicide.
Nope... Saddam's problems are primarily internal. His "elite" republican guards demand a price for their loyalty, even though they may also be terrified by him. He has to maintain his impression of being the leader that will protect their priviledged lives, while scaring the local populace to death over possible US strikes and continuing to submit to his will.
Should he lose face, which is what the US is about to inflict upon him, his supporters may find themselves in quite a bind. They may not like Hussein and his iron-handed rule, but they have priviledges the rest of the population do not enjoy, and should Hussein lose power, the popular backlash by an oppressed population could become overwhelming.
The problem this time is that the Clinton administration appears set to force a complete retreat on Hussein's part, or face being militarily "neutered". Primary targets will be air defense systems, airfields, munitions, and those beautiful palaces.
Take away those toys that provide Hussein his internal prestige, and his supporters will likely try to exit.. stage left (via Jordan).
But the removal or downfall of Hussein will result in more problems, namely that 55% of Iraq's population is Shi'ite, while the rest is Sunni. And you have some 20,000 Turkish soldiers in N. Iraq right now, chasing Kurdish rebels.
So who is going to rule this mish-mash of cultures who are not very fond of each other in the first place??
It's complex, but Hussein will not attack Israel unless he sees himself being forced from power by the US. So the trick is to do enough damage to neutralize Hussein's power, but let his own people take care of him over the course of time.
Regards,
Ron |
