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Subject: Y2K Alert - 11/13/98 - Nuclear missile threat is real
DAILY NEWS ALERTS NOW AVAILABLE ON THE WEB You can now read each day's news alert directly on the web. Simply go
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FOR Y2K BELIEVERS ONLY... Y2KSUPPLY.COM is hosting a new "believers only" once-a-week e-mail newsletter on Y2K. No
Y2K skeptics allowed. For details, see: y2ksupply.com
COMPAQ CONFIRMS TIME DILATION IS REAL A few days ago, Y2KNEWSWIRE reported on the "Crouch/Echlin" effect, a
mysterious new Y2K problem, just recently discovered, that causes desktop PCs to essentially misread the RTC (Real Time
Clock), resulting in non-Year 2000-compliance for PCs. This is an important issue because it reveals a previously-unknown threat to
an entire category of computers recently thought of as being "relatively safe" from the Millennium Bug.
The issue was hotly debated in Y2K circles, especially by the hardware engineers. Some said it was pure hype, others swore it was
real.
Compaq has now confirmed the Crouch/Echlin effect is real. In fact, not only is it real, its effects are unpredictable. And the only
way you can actually test whether your computer will be affected by it is to roll your computer's clock to 2000, then run a full TWO
WEEKS of testing, rebooting your computer from time to time in order to check for date problems.
HERE'S WHAT THIS MEANS: This discovery, now confirmed, unveils several new important points to understand about Y2K;
We don't know as much about it as we thought. If a brand new problem can be discovered this late in the game, that doesn't
speak well for our understanding of how these systems will actually interact with the new century.
The skeptics who argued this problem didn't exist were simply wrong. These were brilliant people who thought they knew the right
answer. Many were Y2K skeptics. It turns out they were not only wrong, they were
dangerously
wrong.
Desktop PCs, a category of computers that, until now, was thought to be relatively immune to Year 2000 problems, is now known
to be vulnerable. This changes the whole equation. Companies that have budgeted tens of thousands of dollars for replacing desktop
systems may now have to budget hundreds of thousands (or millions). All the budgets must now shift, and engineers must now take
time away from other projects to install software patches on PCs (or replace them).
The behavior of computers suffering from the Crouch/Echlin effect is unpredictable. At times, it will have no effect. At other times, it
interferes with the proper functioning of the computer. As nearly all engineers will tell you,
unpredictable
behavior is far worse than an outright failure. It's easier to fix the problem if it fails EVERY time. But the Crouch/Echlin effect is
apparently random.
What new surprises await us as we get closer to the new millennium? If time dilation can pounce on us in 1998, might there be
other unknown effects lurking that will only be discovered in 1999? While we
think
we know everything about this problem, the Crouch/Echlin effect proves us wrong: we were overconfident. Are we making the
same mistake again?
Read more details about the Crouch/Echlin effect at: y2ktimebomb.com
NEW BRITISH STUDY WARNS OF Y2K NUCLEAR MISSILE RISK The British American Security Information Council has
published a new report entitled, "The Bug in the Bomb." The report concludes it is POSSIBLE that nuclear missiles could be
launched as a result of Y2K glitches in the control software.
Indeed, this is worse than the "worst-case" scenarios already depicted by sites like www.garynorth.com
Lets look at the evidence cited in the report: First, the report cites a 1993 test by NORAD technicians here in the United States.
Curious about the Y2K problem, they rolled the clocks forward to 2000. The result? Total system blackout.
This story reports: "Thomas Neve of Basic says this scenario is more to be feared than the possibility that missiles confused by the
date change will decide to launch themselves. "If everyone's completely blind or they get a false image, things start getting really
dangerous," he says."
That's the big worry: that screens might go blank and either the technicians or the computers might think there has
already
been some kind of attack.
With the fate of millions of lives in their hands, you would think the technicians would be hard at work on this issue, right? Not so.
The story continues:
"Michael R. Kraig and Herbert Scoville Jr, the report's authors, have no confidence in the measures taken by the US Department of
Defense. They point out that last year the department published an impressive sounding five-point plan for knocking out the Year
2000 bug. Last June an audit found that out of 430 machines labeled Year 2000 compliant, only 109 had been correctly certified.
The procedures were actually vague and ambiguous - for instance, validation through testing was not required before a lower
manager certified a system; the only real requirement was that the manager signed the testing slip."
Y2KNEWSWIRE has reported on this as well. The US DoD previously lied about their compliance, then later fessed up to the truth,
promising to be honest about it from now on. (Sound familiar?)
This also shows the meager requirements for a proclamation of "compliance." All it takes is one lower manager to sign a slip. Then
the P.R. machine kicks into gear and announces, "We're compliant!" But are they really? In the case of the DoD, they sure weren't.
The report also mentions that checking all the ICBM systems (control systems, launch systems, guidance systems, etc.) for
compliance is
impossible
. Many chips used in the equipment are obsolete, and it's almost impossible to find people who can work on them. It also
mentions the danger of one non-compliant system causing the failure of compliant systems -- the "virus" effect, if you will.
With all this in mind, Russia has decided to do absolutely nothing to address the Y2K compliance of their own systems, claiming
they really have no problem. As Igor Sergeyev, Russia's defense minister, said in August: "This problem mostly affects sectors
where they use conventional computer technologies. There is no such danger [for nuclear weapons] since in the Strategic Missile
Forces we use special technologies."
That sounds comforting. "Special technologies." Frankly, it sounds like these non-standard technologies would be MORE difficult to
repair, but they aren't going to be repaired at all.
But the story reports a counter viewpoint, one that reveals the CRITICAL threat we've been talking about here for quite some time:
the division-by-zero error.
>From the story: Sergey Fradkov, a former Soviet satellite control technician now working in the US. "Russia is extremely
vulnerable to the Year 2000 problem," he said. "If the date is used somewhere to track an incoming missile and the date shifts to
0000000 for a brief moment, there is a division by zero - an extremely high value - that fools the system into thinking there is a high
probability of an attack in progress."
Frankly, at this point, after publishing this, there is really no more reason to do any more news about Y2K. That statement above,
and the evidence from the report, should be more than enough to kick any reasonable person into gear. You
must
get prepared for the Year 2000 problem. If it's not the disruption in the food supplies, if it's not the rolling power blackouts that are
likely to occur, if it's not the lack of telecommunications and emergency services, consider the possibility that we're once again
facing the potential for a nuclear exchange. And as you should already know, these are targeted at the cities.
Sure, the Soviet Union is no more. It's been broken up into smaller countries. But the missiles are still there, still armed. They still
work. And unfortunately, they are no longer under central control. This means the overall likelihood of
somebody
screwing up is much higher than it would have been if all the missiles were under the command of a single country.
Story at: online.guardian.co.uk
CHINA READY TO TEST NUKE THAT COULD REACH USA Right on the heels of the worrisome Russian nuke discovery, the
Washington Times is now reporting that China will soon be testing missiles that can reach the Western United States.
The story reports: "U.S. intelligence agencies reported secretly within the U.S. government last week that the initial flight test of the
DF-31 ICBM will take place in December..."
China describes the buildup as "peaceful." Sure. And they don't torture political prisoners, either.
These new missiles will have a range of 5,000 miles and carry a 500 kiloton nuclear warhead. At the same time, China is working on
a missile than an 8,000-mile range -- enough to reach several U.S. states, especially California, Oregon and Washington.
The story also says: "A CIA report from earlier this year said 13 of China's 18 long-range nuclear missiles were targeted on the
United States. The report contradicted Mr. Clinton's often-used phrase there are no nuclear missiles aimed at the United States."
THE SKINNY ON THIS Remember here that China is a
Communist
country. You can be arrested in China just for bringing a Bible into the country. Some people in the United States are extremely
worried about China launching the missiles and starting World War III. While that seems remote, the
more likely
possibility here is just like the one described in the Russian story above: an
accidental
launch that would send missiles to the United States with no recourse.
With China already targeting the United States with 13 long-range missiles, the upcoming Y2K problems have the potential to result
in a major nuclear exchange with China
or
Russia. Accidental, of course, but who's going to care when you're dead? Is somebody going to get on TV and say, "Oops!"
For some reason, I don't think that explanation is going to fly.
Story at: washtimes.com
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