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Technology Stocks : DELL TA ONLY
DELL 149.13-2.1%3:59 PM EST

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To: Spaw who wrote (94)11/13/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (2) of 202
 
Noticed this amateur Dell TA group, here's my comments reposted from the sandbox.

*** Note this is amateur chart gazing, not a recommendation ***

Maybe you can read this:
iqc.com

Notice the following:

o - 2 successive gaps down, making some sort of island formation
that candlestick readers would say is bearish. (on the way
up this is supposed to be very bullish).

o - Reversal of momentum indicator (of course). tifwiw.

o - MACD negative (of course) reversed from positive
in the earnings run-up, level at zero leading up to this at 65.

o - closed below 65 level recently established prior
to earnings run-up.

o With exception of spike down on Oct 8, Jan 1996 was last time
price touched the 200 dma. 200 dma is at 45-47.
Anything under 50 will be short-term salvageable
(if not on margin).

o - Several times rested and touching the 50 dma, now at 60.

If the 50 dma crosses below the 200 dma this is a
"bearish" technical indication and will be widely
recognized as such.

o - 200 dma is rising swiftly (+5 in one month)

o Michael Dell himself has stated he expects to maintain a
20 - 25 % growth in revenue for five years. No
more boasting about 25% sequential.


That's all the snake oil I could muster. Of course if Dell price
rises indefinitely after bouncing off whatever level it bounces,
it will leave a blip in the chart and we're talking PE=100.
I think we may be in for some normal sideways action at best before
Dell can go straight up again. Dell is heavily over-owned and it
won't be pretty when the fund managers don't want to hold so much.

Short-term support at 60, below that wait for sub-50s again
for a smallish position. The world will end on Feb 14 so you can load up some more then.
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