Paul, IMO it's a luck for all of us that rates come down longterm...
I read a book "Die Entdeckung der Langsamkeit" (~the exploration or slowlyness), where the author analyzed that nearly all what goes bad in "modern" "civilisations" would run better without interest.
VERY simple extract: In fact "capitalism" is an interest-related system. "Interest" itself is not a simple price for a service or good, it's a price for waitingtime - with the effect, that we (some of us still keep thinking that all this should happen with positive effects for US) loose our time (the rest of our time) "for" interest.
However, no doubt that there is a trend downward - IMO this recent effect, that a majority of investors react on rate-changings as if the devil would come to her wife (IMO absolutely meaningless, rates don't have any relation to stock-markets anymore - that has been effective when stock-markets moved slower and when rates were moving in a region of 15%, but today it's - again IMO - simply a total psychological shit because nobody is CONSIDERING where a effect could be - all KNOW that a effect exist: and in terms of "KNOWING" something, nobody can be "stronger" than Americans - whether it's alcohol or communismn.), causes the fed-banks worldwide to cut their rates for a better running economy.
However, I fear that we CAN get a selling (IMO we will see NO rate-cut), but I hope, another rule can barre the worst: Mr. market does (IMO again) nothing because something gives him a good cause - he does what he's feeling (in his stomache, where you mostly can find more intelligence...) and when it has happened, he chose a good argument for his doing. Sometimes you can observe kinda prevention: searching arguments before the action happens - but this is more like: "will you beat me if I throw my beer over you?"
OK - let's see. With DELL and SAP, I'm still swimming in black with P/E's about 25 - a year from now. So I can hold my nervosity in limits.
Happy trading - esp. for John!
Jury
PS: DJ bot DELL - is that good or bad news? I guess, he was following the rule: "Der einzige Mist, auf dem nichts wächst, ist der Pessimist." DJ - when we put our shares together, we probably can take over Dell and SAP... |
