SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: HairBall who wrote (33498)11/14/1998 7:52:00 AM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Hi LG,

>>>The 18-year Real Estate cycle should continue to head down and start accelerating. (Approx. 9 years up and 9 years down)<<<

Using the previous last known bottom approach, adding 18 years
to 1974 gives a bottom in 1992, and adding 9 years to that gives a
top of 2001.

Using the peak volume activity approach, adding 9 years to the top
in 1988 gives a bottom in 1997 and the next top in 2006.

Using the actual previous bottom approach, somewhere between 1992 - 1994, depending on what region and what price range of
homes, would give the next peak somewhere in the 2001 - 2003
range. I would use New York as a proxy for the general real estate market, although, of course, different parts of the country vary.

How are you calculating a current down cycle?

Vitas
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News