The following has more to do with NANO but for "I" investors the last paragraph is interesting:
<<<Analyst's Latest Comment - AEA is the reason behind today's run
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10:31am EST 13-Nov-98 Van Kasper & Company (Gerald S. Fleming 415-391-5600) ASY
Semiconductor Equipment Industry- ASYT and NANO Favored After AEA Presentations
VAN KASPER & COMPANY GERALD S. FLEMING (415) 675-2718
RESEARCH FLASH SUSAN CROSSLEY (415) 675-2717
NOVEMBER 13, 1998
SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT
THE SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY
Asyst Technologies, Inc. and Nanometrics, Inc. Favored After AEA Presentations;
Lam Research Corp. Announces New Layoffs;
Results Due From Etec, Inc. and Applied Materials, Inc.
Investment Conclusion: The American Electronics Association (AEA) meeting was
held in San Diego earlier this week. Most firms we met with believe that they
have seen the worst order-wise, but remain skeptical on shipments through
mid-1999. We note that investors are shaking their heads about the magnitude
and swiftness of the recovery. Even though many stocks have doubled in recent
weeks, it looks to us as though this sector is (and should continue to be)
climbing a "wall of worry". We strongly recommend purchases of Asyst
Technologies, Inc. and Lam Research Corp. (OTC:LRCX - $16 7/8, Buy), and would
also buy ADE Corp. (OTC:ADEX - $14 ¬, Long-Term Buy), KLA-Tencor, Inc.,
Nanometrics, Inc. and Novellus Systems, Inc. (OTC:NVLS - $46 5/8, Long-Term
Buy). Other positions in the group may also benefit from increased activity in
copper technology and a continued need for finer features.
During the conference, we met with the following firms --
ASM Lithography (OTC:ASMLF - $27 1/2)
Asyst Technologies, Inc. (OTC:ASYT - $17 «) Buy
CFM Technology (OTC:CFMT - $10 1/4 )
DuPont Photomasks (OTC:DPMI - $32 1/8)
Etec, Inc. (OTC:ETEC - $33 1/8) Hold
FSI Int'l (OTC:FSII - $7 1/4)
GaSonics (OTC:GSNX - $7 9/16)
Genus (OTC:GGNS - $7/8)
Intevac (OTC:IVAC - $7 1/2)
Integrated Process (OTC:IPEC - $10 15/16)
KLA-Tencor (OTC:KLAC - $37 15/16) Long-Term Buy
Mattson (OTC:MTSN - $5 15/16)
Nanometrics (OTC:NANO - $6 1/16) Long-Term Buy
Photronics (OTC:PLAB - $18 5/8)
SpeedFam (OTC:SFAM - $18 3/8)
Tegal (OTC:TGAL - $2 3/4)
Ultratech Stepper (OTC:UTEK - $19 5/16)
Veeco (OTC:VECO - $35 1/4)
Zygo (OTC:ZIGO - $9 11/16)
In our opinion, Asyst remains the best opportunity in the group. Management
continues to look for sequential revenue improvement and a book-to-bill above
1:1. In addition, it expects to book two retrofit contracts worth $30-40
million each in the first quarter (or possibly second quarter) of calendar 1999.
Unlike new fab contracts in which similar revenues are spread over a 2-3 year
period, these retrofits take about 3 quarters -- i.e., add $10 million (+) a
quarter. The Company is also bidding on another 10 similar jobs. This is not
an insignificant increment for a firm that shipped $15 million last quarter. We
still have a $20 per share near-term objective with a next-cycle upside to as
much as $40.
Nanometrics is seeing lots of interest in its Applied Materials in-line
metrology offering and exploring other possible applications (Track and CVD).
However, there was no news or catalyst to drive the stock in the near term.
IPEC and SpeedFam appear to be struggling vs. Applied. IPEC appears to have the
lead in developing a copper tool. The two could make an interesting couple, in
our opinion.>>> |
