How Many Megabytes Of Memory Are Too Many?
Nov. 13, 1998 (Electronic Buyers News - CMP via COMTEX) -- High on PC
users' Christmas wish list is to have their machines stuffed with more
memory, along with faster processors, improved bandwidth, and lots of
other high-tech goodies.
The demand for more memory is nothing new. In the past three years,
the amount of memory socketed by most PC manufacturers has quadrupled,
from 8 Mbytes in 1995 for bargain-basement systems to 64 Mbytes in many
of today's mainstream desktop PCs and also in some notebooks. Now,
however, the next step up, to 128-Mbyte configurations, is under
way-although exactly when this will occur on a large scale depends on a
number of variables, according to some industry analysts.
"We think there'll be strong demand for desktop systems equipped with
128 Mbytes of memory in 1999," said Michael Stich, a marketing manager
at Dell Computer Corp., Round Rock, Texas.
The principal reason, according to Stich, is the forthcoming Windows
NT 5.0 operating system, now known as Windows 2000.
"There's growing support for Windows NT 5.0 among corporate users,
which is why we're going to make 128 Mbytes standard on some members of
our [high-end] Optiplex line," he said.
Corporate customers are saying they need to be ready for Windows NT
5.0 next year, said Anthony Kim, a senior product marketing manager at
Hitachi PC Corp., Milpitas, Calif. "The most important component of
this will be 128 Mbytes of memory on the desktop and even in some
notebook PCs," he said.
More early support
Dell is one of a handful of PC makers whose early experience with
Microsoft Corp.'s Windows NT 5.0 is helping to guide the development of
next year's PC systems. Several of Dell's key corporate accounts are
beta-testing early versions of the new operating system.
Compaq Computer Corp., Houston, and Micron Electronics Inc., Nampa,
Idaho, are two other PC makers that have had some initial experience
with NT 5.0, and are among those that have incorporated earlier NT
generations into their systems.
For the last year or so, more than 40% of the desktop PCs that direct
marketer Micron Electronics has sold have shipped with Windows NT 4.0,
according to chief executive Joel Kocher at a recent industry gathering
in Sun Valley, Idaho. "We think NT will be the next platform that's
important in the direct model, and this will continue in the years to
come," he said.
Both Compaq and Micron Electronics are working with Microsoft to
support NT 5.0 beta-testing, and Micron has gone a step further,
offering qualified customers new systems that are equipped with the
current NT 5.0 beta.
What these PC makers and users are discovering is that, while the new
operating system runs decently on computers equipped with 64 Mbytes of
memory, it does much better on machines armed with 128 Mbytes.
Aiding this development is the fact that 128-Mbyte memory is
currently inexpensive, said Martin Reynolds, an analyst at Dataquest
Inc., San Jose. The price, for example, of 128-Mbyte base SDRAM
continues to drop and has an adder cost of only $70, Reynolds said. The
prices of SIMMs, and more recently DIMMs, also continue to sink, he
added, noting that the tag on a 128-Mbyte DIMM has fallen about 20%
since May, from $195 to $158.
There are clear signs, however, that after a long decline, DRAM
prices have begun to stabilize and soon could start rising, affecting
how rapidly corporations and other PC users might move to 128-Mbyte
configurations and the new Windows OS, according to Sherry Garber, an
analyst at Semico Research Corp., Phoenix.
"Yes, some of the high-end PCs to be shipped by companies like Compaq
and Dell will come with 128 Mbytes of memory and Windows NT 5.0," she
said. "But as DRAM prices stabilize, what will corporate users do about
their huge installed base of PCs, particularly if you add to the
picture the fact that you'll also need Rambus DRAM?
"How many corporations are going to throw out their installed base
and buy the expensive new PCs?" Garber said. "As it already stands,
corporations have slowed the rate at which they install new systems,
preferring instead to do some retrofitting of what they've already got."
A different picture
While some early users of Windows NT 5.0 are seeking more memory, the
same can't be said for the Windows 95/98 desktop segment. The basic
memory configuration for standard desktops that cost $1,000 or more has
been 64 Mbytes since the beginning of this year, and for the moment
there's little incentive to go beyond that, according to Dataquest's
Reynolds and PC product managers. The principal reason is that, while
Windows NT 5.0 is scalable, Windows 95/98 is not.
There are some exceptions. For example, product managers at several
companies say they may move to 128 Mbytes for some Windows 95/98
desktops equipped with Intel Corp.'s forthcoming Katmai processor.
Expected in early 1999 and being privately shown at this month's Comdex
in Las Vegas, some PC makers-including Compaq, Hewlett-Packard, and
Sony-are using the Katmai to build high-end multimedia computers that,
in addition to mainstream personal- productivity applications, are also
being positioned for digital-imaging applications.
Digital imaging requires the importing, loading, and editing of
large, multi-Mbyte files. For Windows 95/98-based desktop computers
running this kind of application, 128 Mbytes of high-speed memory is
necessary. Desktops in this class are expected to hit the street
carrying $2,200 to $2,500 price tags.
Role of Rambus
Performance and memory throughput are hot issues for PC designers
working on new Windows NT and Windows 98 operating systems. Into this
arena has stepped Rambus Inc. and the numerous memory suppliers that
have signed up to license Rambus DRAM. This new serial-memory
technology is expected to dominate high-performance PCs in 1999. By the
end of next year, say executives at companies such as Dell and Micron,
most high-performance systems are expected to come with RDRAM.
If PC makers aren't already thinking about how they're going to
integrate Rambus technology into their systems, they're behind the
curve, Dataquest's Reynolds said.
Those that elect to use older SDRAM will be able to move to the new
technology through the use of an SDRAM-to-RDRAM interface that will be
offered by Intel. By using the migration module, PC makers will be able
to build a single platform that can be used with either SDRAM or RDRAM.
RDRAM is looking at a major opportunity in the server market, where
improvements in Windows NT 5.0 bump its maximum memory capacity up to
64 Gbytes. The winning strategy here, according to several product
managers, may be to increase basic memory to 1 Gbyte for basic servers
and tens of Gbytes for specialty applications.
Increased performance demands in the server market could drive the
next generation of memory. "Most memory bandwidth today is pitiful,"
said analyst Kim Brown of Data-quest. "Hopefully, new processors from
Intel, like follow-on products to Merced that are expected to have 3.2
Gbytes of memory bandwidth, will address this, although it's unclear
how Intel will do it."
Brown points to IBM Corp.'s Generation Five CMOS memory, which
operates at 450 MHz, as an example of a technology that's ideal for
forthcoming servers. "It has speed and bandwidth, and by the year 2000,
I expect they will have memory operating near 1 GHz."
Redesigning notebooks
Suppliers of PC notebooks decided last year that, with the
introduction of Windows NT 5.0, they would have to ship portables with
more memory- principally with 64 Mbytes but in some instances with 128
Mbytes.
"Our corporate customers wanted notebooks that were true desktop
replacements," said Gary Elsasser, a senior vice president at Toshiba
Corp.'s portable-computer division in Irvine, Calif. "That means that
we started building machines like the Tecra family that come standard
with 64 Mbytes."
In 1999, more corporations and even some midsize and small businesses
are expected to adopt Windows NT 5.0, Hitachi's Kim said. "We expect to
see 64 Mbytes as a standard configuration for corporate portables and
strong demand for 128-Mbyte configurations."
The demand for more memory means that notebook designers may be
forced to redesign some of their systems, according to Reynolds. "They
need to make sure they can accommodate 128 Mbytes of memory or more,
and they really should think about building motherboards with 64 Mbytes
down," he said.
But that could present a problem for the thin and light portables now
gaining in popularity. Due to their size and basic design, many such
machines can hold only up to 96 Mbytes of memory.
-Jim Forbes is senior technology editor at Windows Magazine in San
Mateo, Calif.
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