a723a, I appreciate the ongoing conversation with you on INVX! IMO Momentum traders can drive a stock like YHOO through the roof far beyond any rational valuation- they can also drive a stock down to only 1/2 of its book value- like AFLX @ $2 3/4.
Flip chips will only be a "niche market" compared to regular semiconductor chips- but it is a growing niche. (Please go to Flip Chip Technologies, a Delco Electronics/Kulicke & Sofa Joint Venture, Homepage on the Net and read some there about future flip chip demand). It is being driven by consumers who want smaller, lighter electronics components. Those require flex circuits and flip chips- they take less room than a traditional semiconductor chip. And the drive toward smaller mobile systems, see sales of 3COM's's Palmpilot, and MSFT's and QCOM's new venture announced Thursday called "Wireless Knowledge". We are moving toward greater reliance for data transmission/manipulation via wireless interconnects on cell phones and laptops that can communicate securely with corporate data systems.
Now will that move supplant traditional computers? No- desk tops will be around for along time. But the demand for more sophisticated cell phones with E.g., MSFT's CE Operating System, and laptops that link via wirelsss system securly to corporate HQ- those will require flex circuits and flip chips. So the demand is very real.
Indeed read this blurb from AFLX's 10/19 Earnings Report:
"ADFlex Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rolando C. Esteverena commented: "The results for the third quarter and nine months are primarily attributable to the weakened demand experienced by certain customers -- in particular those supplying the personal computer markets and the hard disk drive (HDD) segment -- and to pricing pressures from Asian manufacturers that combined and resulted in under-utilization of factory capacity.
"Looking to positive signs, our backlog at the end of the third quarter reached $36.7 million, a 29.7% sequential increase over the prior quarter. We believe this reflects improving demand as customers reduce excess inventories and new programs go into volume production."
New design activity reached 172 designs for the third quarter, a 22.0% sequential increase from the prior quarter. During the period, ADFlex began production ramps on 91 new programs, including recent design wins from Dell Computer Corp., Overland Data Inc., Samsung Corp. and Xerox Corp.
Esteverena continued, "Looking ahead, our improved backlog and new product design activity is reason for optimism and suggests that a recovery for the industry may be at hand."
Now also read SFLX's quarterly release- more of the same. Now am I crazy betting on INVX's ramp up in flip chip assembly and flex circuit manufacturing? Not from AFLX's and SFLX's report. It's like King Salmon fishing. AFLX and SFLX are pulling up some nice size fish. Indeed AFLX is up over 200% off of its low of one month ago. I like those odds. So I am going to fish by their boats by buying INVX and see what happens... Maybe I'll "get lucky" and pull in a big fish too.
Maybe because I haunt the ECM Threads such as FLEX, DIIG, and SCI, and also haunt the Telcomm Threads such as TLAB, AFCI, DSP, QCOM, and XYLN, I see great potential for INVX rapidly transitioning into an ECM with a bright future- enough to bet part of my chips on this pony. You may see INVX as a dd components maker which is still in the throes of a slow market. That may account for our different views of the company......
The truth however is probably somewhere in between our two viewpoints, ha!.... |
