MB
Momentum investing. The way I understand this term, the time frame is very short. Buy what is hot. Internuts now, etc. Look at high volume, new high list, etc.
But would you agree that there is another sort of momentum investing that creates overvalued stocks like msft, intc, dell, csco or "bad stocks" like steels?
Taking msft as an example, the way the program works to me is somewhat in the same mode of a Soros "virtuous circle":
1. Company is solid.
2. Stock price is x
3. Announce earnings growing at say 25% but not next quarter.
4. Analysts tout strong position, large cash hoard.
5. Stock goes up by 70% over a few months, split announced.
6. Herd observes stock price increase proving good company.
7. Back to step 1
I don't think I did a very good job of what the 7 step program. My point is that the same old song is being played now as when the stock was 1/4 the price it is now. The increase seems to prove that it is a good company to the herd.
To paraphrase an old expression "When a stock is good it is very, very good. And when a stock is bad, it is very very bad."
Not to slam any of our thread mates (and perhaps to exaggerate a little to make a point), but when I brought up steel stocks, it was almost like the response from a few was "It's a dumping commodity industry, stupid".
I am rambling, Michael. One thing I am trying to say is we can clearly see the herd in the internuts. But the same sort of thing happens constantly in slower motion. Good begets price increases which proves good which begets still higher stock prices <back to beginning of sentence>.
As far as I can tell, MSFT and INTC and CSCO are no better placed than where they were when each stock price was 1/4 of where it is today. (MB: psst, have you heard the news? MSFT has a monopoly in operating systems, INTC is the world leader in cpus, CSCO is a dominant provider of equipment for the internet. The internet is growing. All this hot off the presses. <g>) |
