Marshall,
I am a trader rather than an investor because I like the excitement.
I'm not a programmer, but I don't doubt that the y2k problem
is real (although a bit overblown). I just don't think that ACLY and
a lot of the other small y2k companies can make substantial amounts of
money in such a short time period (3 years). I think the big
software/service companies will make most of the money because they
already have people in place to provide the service (e.g., IBM, CA,
EDS, Arthur Andersen Consulting, and even some accounting firms). A
lot of companies already provide Oracle, Baan, and SAP implementation.
They already have contracts for these services. They will take most
of the market for y2k implementation. They aren't pure y2k plays
though.
In the short term, I think ACLY will trend lower (to 13). It was up
today, but almost everything was up today. Besides, a one point gain
is not very impressive. Longer term, I think ZITL (along with CHRZ
and VIAS) will be the focus of y2k investors and traders.
Happy trading/investing.
JW |
