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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: FMK who wrote (5099)11/15/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: gvander  Read Replies (2) of 27311
 
I hate to bring this** up --

Using FMK's Numbers (for CFY/NFY)

0.87 Book Value per Share (Current)
9.22 Price to Book (Current)
4,200.00 Price to Sales TTM
10.50 Price to Projected Sales for CFY (FMK)
32 Forward P/E for NFY using FMK's 0.25 EPS estimate

Even giving you every benefit of the doubt and using your latest projections

Just imagine what will happen to these shares if they can't EXCEED EVERY expectation by a vast margin (which thanks to fmk is already priced in).

Just think what will happen if they dissappoint or fail completely.

**Just between you and me--I Guess you already know that they can't grow that fast with their current financing? Or did you forget working capital? Kind of puts a top on this baby doesn't it? (even with your projections)

Were you going to share that with anyone here or did you just forget?

Do you know how to value a high-tech company?? You haven't even created projected statements (you have to account for financing, working capital, capital expenditures, etc) BTW, don't forget the TVM and an appropriate Ke.

Just calling you to task a little--you don't have to answer if you don't want to. But, I would be shocked if you were not able use them they are pretty basic assuptions involved in every high-tech investment analysis. Kinda puts you in a catch 22.
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