Larry- Are your friends the same guys who were passing around the ridiculous whisper numbers, and pumping clients to buy on them?
Let's face facts...the major brokerage houses have probably been wrong on Dell as much as they have been right....
The Street will probably estimate a .31 this quarter....Dell could make .33, (although that would represent a fantastic quarter)...What would this do to all the theorists (if true?)
.32 is the most likely starting point for this quarter...(or one cent above the current estimate)
I dont think (in any way) the big money has given up on this stock...if we lose the momentum guys (who buy 2 weeks before, and sell right after)...this all is probably doing us a favor...
I think you are a bit low (conservative) with your projections for next year...Remember, Dell will be cranking in the 3 new facilities built during this year....Right now, we are at the bottom of the Asia dip...by 2nd half, improvement should be clear...
The key here is that MD hiked his 3 year growth projection from 15% to 17%..(annual PC overall)..as Dell migrates up the chain, higher margin sales are being brought in....
I think EPS growth (next year, quarter by quarter) of between 50-60% is doable....a bit of a slowdown from this year....but if we have lower interest rates (which we should)...and the "premium" that the Street pays to big, liquid growth companies (like Microsoft, Cisco)
should stay the same or even expand (given the extra quarters of consistent history, perfomance)....Dell is going to hold up nicely.....So, my guessestimate is that we (still) could see a peak of80 PE during some subsequent quarter...
That would put us on a path for nice appreciation next year...
(I know you are looking for 75-80 over 12 months...I think you are are low here...my (I'll call it conservative guess) is 85-95... |
