>>1. The tenor of your posts suggests that .25 is where we draw the line between
MASK and PLAB or DPMI. The following statement is from the MASK FY98
10K, issued earlier this year:<<
The tenor of your posts was that MASK is undervalued because it is not perceived as being on the leading edge, but that 0.25 micron is a long distance away and MASK will be caught up in time. I disagreed (and continue to disagree) with your statement that 0.25 micron is a long way away. I take no position on MASK's preparedness or lack thereof.
>>"I'd actually put it a different way: It's hard to conceive of a general industry
rebound without a rebound in Asia."<<
Since you took issue with this statement, let me be more precise:
It's hard to conceive of a semiconductor equipment industry rebound without increased demand for chips from Asian consumers, regardless of who supplies those chips.
>> 2) when overall demand is down, ASPs are down,
cash flow is down, equity values are down, etc., you focus on capacity utilization,
debt service coverage, overall production efficiency, etc., not capacity expansion.<<
I repeat, 0.25 micron devices are faster and offer significantly higher performance, thereby allowing companies to increase their ASP for those chips. If you would like me to defer to your economic expertise, please listen when I make technology-oriented comments.
Mask shops have been significantly less brutalized than equipment companies in the current downturn. Note that they are still reporting profits and earnings growth, while the equipment companies are reporting losses and massive layoffs. According to executives at mask shops, increased 0.25 micron demand is one reason for this. Stepper vendors are less severely affected than other front-end equipment companies, and give 0.25 micron technology part of the credit. These are not my opinions, these are statements made to me personally or in my presence by officials of the affected companies and by market analysts.
I am perfectly willing to concede that rapid shrinks are not economically wise. But, wise or not, they are occurring. An INVESTOR in semiconductor companies ignores the rapid technology transitions characteristic of the industry at his peril.
Katherine |
