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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (15492)11/15/1998 7:15:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Read Replies (2) of 18691
 
Roger, hard times for reits and mortgage fin. services:

Amresco (AMMB), already beaten down during first week of October sees a 4Q loss of at least $85 Mio, or $1.63 a share. This is the double of their guide they gave just 1 month ago.

AMMB, previously said dead, saw its price slipping down to 1 3/8, but recovered, when they survived the margin calls on T Futures. Recently they went up over 8 and briefly hit 9.

As for CLR, I took a ride upwards in AMMB and LFCO after they did not go bankrupt and Mr. Pink assigned a "speculative" to CLR. He was right about CLR, when CLR reported the loss of half the book value later on.
"RESULTS OF OPERATIONS: Clarion began operations on June 2, 1998. Net losses for the period from June 2, 1998 to September 30, 1998 amounted to $47,414,140 or $9.52 per share. The total loss for the period from June 2, 1998 to September 30, 1998 was attributable primarily to unrealized losses on securities held for trade of $47,906,440, losses from the closing of short positions in government securities of $1,309,897 and offset by interest income from securities - trading of $8,992,934. Total expense for the period of $7,707,586 was due primarily to interest expense of $6,364,944."

I think I will take out the list of finco's we shorted in sympathy with the FirstPlus debacle (like ACF, LBFC, NDE maybe...).

About AMMB new losses: biz.yahoo.com

The problem is that the guys said the same bs one quarter ago, but expected half the losses namely 40-45 m... Either they lied to the public (which I don't allege now), or the markey got worse than expected.

biz.yahoo.com

"The cash proceeds from the sales will go to repay the warehouse debt used to finance the loans with the remainder to be available for unspecified general purposes." (A nice circumvention of the nasty term 'margin calls').

Who should trust them when they point out a $1.60/shr gain in 1999? I have trusted them - for a while.

C.
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