rudedog: Staying at the cosmic level for a moment - given all you have said about the probability of a growing modularity and commodization of computers, even in the commercial market, what would be the consequential effects for companies which sell and service ERP software systems such as CA, SAP, ORCL? The design of their products may already accommodate the trends you outline, but I was wondering whether the more rapid replacement of "core" boxes and of components will require substantial re-design or upgrading of software. Could it be that the revenues of those companies will depend less on the sale of proprietary software and more on the consulting services needed to constantly review and adjust installed systems.
Also, what might be the effect on the chip industry; presumably, the various plug-in modules might be amenable to built-in logic chips, shifting some of the computing tasks away from the core box.
Also, I suppose built-in modems, will become standard, and what effect will that have on the 3COMS and SIEMENS of the world.
A final general question would be what other sectors and companies would benefit from the trends you foresee?
Victor |
