Greg - A prediction based more on hope than analysis, I am guessing, and so to begin the analysis, what new masses of computational machines do we need to conduct our lives in the next few years?
Yes and no. I'll admit that predictions of future demand are indeed more of an art than a science and hence all of the poor predictions. But as for predictions of the death of the advance of 'semiconductor technology', it's been done before by very famous people and they have been wrong:
Bill Gates ~1987 - 'I don't see that anyone will ever need more than 640K of memory'
CEO of IBM ~1949 - 'There is no need for more than 6 computers in the world'
As shrinks continue and price points come down computers will show up in lots of things in which they don't currently exist (e.g. cable companies are starting to distribute computers in the form of Set Top Boxes and whether you choose to believe it or not palm pilots are very very popular, and will get more so as they drop to less than $100.)
But it isn't just about price points, it is also about capability. As shrinks continue it is possible to get smaller, lighter cell phones that last longer on a single charge. It is also possible to get more realistic video games, voice recognition, ... .
Bottom line, there may be hiccups in demand where one driver take over from another (we may be in that mode now - communications is taking over from computers, at least Bill Gates seems to think so), but to say that it's all over is a little odd.
Clark |
