>>Now let me ask you-- how the hell did we miss that rally in semi's? Sheesh. AMAT 22 to 39. <<
Because we use FA with our TA, we both know this is smoke and mirrors. KLIC lost over 50 cents today so the Semi equip makers aren't all booming right now. That is the one thing I hate about the market right now. It is like the SEC isn't even around any more. I will be very interested in seeing what AMAT reports tomorrow. Reading between the lines on IBM and MUs releases was amazing. If I added like they do when I do my taxes, I would be serving a life sentence somewhere with a big hairy wife named Bubba. If the Fed doesn't cut then AMAT misses, could be the spark ...
Seriously though, I am torn between not wanting to miss out on this rally and seeing that the worse a companies real earnings are the better their stock price is climbing. It seems like you could just run a scan of negative earnings, pick the ones that have the worst future growth, then buy it and retire in 2 weeks on the profits. I was listening to an interview with Intels former CEO and he was asked if he had any fears or regrets from how he ran INTC. He started talking about how there was no need for faster chips and he was worried they had got ahead of themselves. Hmmm, no need for new faster chips and INTC is at an all time high? Can you say irrational exuberance? I knew you could. This seems to be mostly in the Tech sector though. There is a battle going on between euphoria in the techs but the non tech stochs are sticking with a little more rationality. I was looking at some of the other sectors and they seem to at least be following some sense of normal valuations although at the higher ends. Many of the Bio techs are still cheap and many of the proven ones are high but at least they have real earnings along with other things in the pipeline.
I am still watching Asia and South America. I think this bubble may last a while but I still think there is going to be one heck of a hangover in the next few months. Bears are back in hibernation and only those wearing horns are allowed on the street now. I don't know what the trigger will be yet but this rebound is just too vertical on the chart for my liking.
I have some calls but the rest is cash. I may just watch for a while and see what happens as expiry goes by. With all the hype about the Fed, Iraq etc. This may all be distracting us from the possibility that we could head down after expiration on no real news. There is always news out there to blame anything on, all it takes is a switch of perspective. Heck Peru, Venezuela are still hurting and Asia is still a time bomb. I wonder how many hedge funds are still treading water from being short when AG cut the rate all of a sudden with no warning. I still say we weren't the only ones caught short that day.
I live by the old saying, if it seems to good to be true, then ...
Good Luck,
Lee |
