Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (31887)	11/17/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: tdl4138	Read Replies (3) of 95453

<Don't you guys "get-it"> Slider...we get it...and those of us that are still holding some positions from last year...really "got-it"... My point is that, while I agree the oils are cyclical in nature...you're too quick to be optimistic...So what if Japan has a new package...if no one uses it...it won't be of much value... HAL @ $20?...When was the last time you looked at a long term chart. For years, HAL never saw $20. We were still using oil during that time frame...but the industry just chugged along...profits were minimal...and so was the price action for the stocks involved. Were they great buys for the long term investor? Not if you had to hold for 5 years before they spiked... This is a cycle...but you have no conception as to how long it will last...and for how long anyones investment could be "dead".. Sure, oil demand will improve...thats a given...but the time factor is the unknown. I would advise anyone looking to invest in this sector to wait until the fundamentals actually turn...or to trade very nimbly in the meantime. Your approach is to look at the scenario...and (possibly correctly) assume that the fundamentals should be at that turning point. My approach is to be certain that the fundamentals are in place...and not just keep guessing.

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