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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: Frank Sheridan who wrote (9026)11/17/1998 10:54:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu  Read Replies (2) of 16960
 
Frank, I'm afraid that I'll be too busy these days to answer questions as thoroughly and as quickly as I'd like. At the moment I see no negatives on the horizons for TDFX. As I said yesterday, I am very excited about them (but that did not stop me from selling calls). Each person's investment/trading method should fit their personality, or it will fail. Personaly I am not fond of stop loss orders especially for micro-cap stocks like TDFX and VISX. Stop loss orders leave you volnurable to market manipulations. There is however one good thing about stop loss orders. They prevent you from emotional attachment to the stock and make you think about when you'd be out of it. I think it is very important to set "correct" expectations for what the stock should do over the time horizon that you are invested in it. When it stops following the game plan, you should get out.

As for my expectations for TDFX, for now I see clear skies ahead. I see them becoming a dominant market player and win market share from others. I see many other players go bust (nVidia included) or get out of this business. The 3D market is expected to grow 30% a year for the next 3~5 years. A conservative expectation for TDFX is to grow its earnings by the industry growth rate. If TDFX grows earnings by 30% for the next 3 years and trades at forward PE of 20, it will be ~80 within that time frame.

Regards,
Sun Tzu
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