Looks like the much anticipated gold short squeeze won't materialize just yet:
KEBBLE HITS OUT AT DERIVATIVES
(unknown date)
Johannesburg- the gold price had been artificially held down by hedge
funds and lenders of gold, often central banks,had manipulated the
market to prevent panic buying that would push the price up, Brett
Kebble, the deputy chairman of JCI Gold, said yesterday.
Michael Coulson, a gold analyst at Paribas in London, said yesterday it
was well known that derivatives trading in gold, which only started
about a decade ago, had exerted continuous downward pressure on the
gold price.
Kebble has repeatedly said that the extensive short positions taken in
the gold market would have to result in a steep upward move in the
price, as funds were forced to buy back gold for physical return to the
lenders.
But yesterday he railed against the fact that, instead of winding up the
short positions through buying gold - which could have put upward
pressure on the price - funds and gold lenders were settling in cash to
avoid panicking the gold market.
Kebble spoke at a presentation of the quarterly results of JCI's Western
Areas and Randfontein Estates mines, which both reported increased
earnings as a result of the falling rand and productivity improvements.
"We have it on good authority that one hedge fund, with a short position
of 12 million ounces, settled off the market to a central bank lender to
avoid market panic," he said.
This could mean, in effect, that the world's central banks could have far
less gold in their vaults than they should.
"In the new year, when the European Central Bank takes over, we will
find some worms coming out of the woodwork," Kebble said.
Coulson said the situation had been developing for 10 years and the
market could have a shortfall of up to 14 000 tons of gold.
"When this whole spider's web starts to unravel it could be sensational,"
he said. "It's (derivative trading has) all been one way, all been shorting.
No one knows what will happen if it all starts reversing."
Western Areas reported a rise in gold profit to R186 million, from R175
million for the previous quarter, on a small increase in gold produced to
3 019kg in spite of a decline in the grade.
During the period, cash costs fell to $234 an ounce from $250 an ounce.
Randfontein reported a 56 percent rise in profit to R63,3 million, in spite
of a 2,2 percent fall in production to 6 570kg.
Western Areas shares lost 25c to R20,50 yesterday. Randfontein Estates
shed 35c to R16,40.
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