How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 514.77

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To: HG who wrote (12246)	11/17/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (4) of 74651

Happy Girl, I may have missed some earlier post (there is so much to read nowadays) but why would it be a bad year for MSFT ? Lets begin a little list why MSFT will have a rough year next year... 1) NT5 is LATE LATE LATE and continues to get later. It will likely release so close to Y2K that no one with any brains would touch it until well into 2000. 2) Even without the Y2K issue, most shops will be extremely leary on implementing NT5 Server as an upgrade or new install until it has at least 2-3 Service Packs under its belt. This is a HUGE Revolutionary upgrade in code for MSFT and its customers - migration will be a rough thing. (a few of our staff just came back from a MSFT sponsored NT5 migration planning course - their heads were shaking when they got back - they said that mid-2000 for serious migration is being optimistic). Many industry analysts are confiming this opinion. 3) The Sun lawsuit has just passed another big hurdle (contrary to many of the Pro-MSFTers that have commented tonight on this board - sorry Michelle but this is big news against MSFT). If MSFT eventually will be forced to conform to Sun's Pure-Java compliancy, then the Java movement will put a big nail in the WinTel domination. Dont let people like Michelle fool you that Java is a flash in the pan. That is why every other major OEM and vendor is putting MILLIONS of dollars into its development and success (except MSFT who is creating a mutation of Java). 4) The MSFT - DOJ case is drainig a lot of effort and focus from MSFT and Mr. Gates himself. This "eye off the ball" will hurt them. While MSFT sits in all the courts across the nation fighting every other OEM and even the Government - their competitors are making their moves. Worse yet (and their is a very good chance of this happening) if the courts rule in favour of the DOJ, then MSFT will have a huge dent in its current Win98 product and even a bigger challenge in its up-coming NT5 rollout. This may delay NT5 well into 2000 in order to conform NT5 into court ordered compliancy. 5) The whole anti-MSFT attitude that is building steam from the competing OEMs, the public, the government, and the MEDIA!! The media giveth - and the media can taketh away! This movement cannot not be under-estimated. It is human nature that anyone or company on a pedastal will become the target to be taken down. 6) And finally the most fundamental - the MSFT enterprise technology is weak and immature! Once MSFT ever releases its NT5 technology - they will have nothing to hide. The industry will see for themselves how "not-ready-for-prime-time" NT5 is compared to its comptitors. It can go on, but these are the major items. Is that a good start? By the way, watch how the following posts from the MSFT-Lemmings will tear me apart personally for this posting. They will not focus on the issues that I just made. Only a prediction based on strong history.... Cheeers Toy

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