Da bull (i.e. Bull-like):
> I would like to get a clear picture about the long-term prospect of
SUN, I mean 5 or ten years down the line.
Well it would be really nice to know exactly what would happen in 5
or 10 years from now! But the best we can do is to rely on the past
and current performance and use our own logic to paint a picture of
future! As for Sun Microsystems I am a little over 2 year investor in
this great company. I remember about 1 year and half ago I had an
interview with Teradyne Corporation (in Agura Hills - Southern Ca).
During my interview they showed me their first generation
semiconductor test equipments and how Sun workstations were
being used for developing test simulations on those equipments. They
told me that at the time (I believe they said mid to late 70's) Teradyne
was using Sun workstations and the software that went with it the
company (that is Sun) was fairly new and really small but Teradyne
really liked the product. They told me the company liked the product
but did not know that it can survive so they bought the option to their
technology in case they went out of business! Sun guranteed them
that they will be in business but gave them the option anyway in
order to get their business. Anyway we all know Sun is no longer the
small unknown company that Teradyne had thought it was! It has
evolved as the number 1 server/workstation supplier (as admitted by
HP). Like any other field they have compettition. After all it is the
compettition that causes progress. Sun is an evolving company. It is
evolving into both a hardware as well as a software company. Look
at Xerox, HP, Motorola, and Rockwell. They all started small but
evolved into many realted fields. Sun belongs to this list of company.
It is expanding rapidly. It is extremly innovative and therefore it can
meet any challenge. Sure they have compettition. But just look at the
new products they come up with. Their Java technology has already
revolutionized the software industry (just the fact that you and I are
communicating like this is mainly because of Sun!). And NO they are
not, and will not be like Apple. Apple was pioneer in PC's BUT their
problem was their ego and making their technology a proprietary
concept. World has changed. It is the cooporation that makes
companies successful and not isolation. Sun is the best model for
providing the most flexible technology. See what happened to Apple.
PC's came out and companies such as Intel, Micron grew rapidly. In
order to buy a PC you no longer were chained to Apple. You could
go buy pieces of it from different hardware vendors at much lower
price and greater performance and then hook them up together.
Apple no longer has the monopoly over the hardware side of PCs
and we know what shape it is today. And they have realized it and
are trying to be more open. Till a couple of years ago software was
in a similar situation. Microsoft had the monopoly over desktop
applications. And dont take me wrong it still does but unless they
really really bend over for Sun this will soon be changing. Sun has
introduced Java. This is a technology that makes it possible
for componization to take place in software. You can go out and buy
a component written under Motif (for example a textfield) and then
hook that up with another component (Microsoft's Listbox) in order to
create an application that can not only be run under Windows but
Motif, or Apple for that matter! You are no longer chained to just (for
example) Microsoft's textfield object. You can buy a much nicer
looking with a lot more functionality textfield object written under a
totally different platform and use that. This is componization at its
best. Microsoft is still trying to put a stop in the advancement of this
componization by introducing a componization model of its own
that only works under windows! It is a cheap copy and there is
no way it will be accpeted by the industry (regardless of how
powerful they are!).And they know it too as they have bend to and
accepted the Java technology. This technology is still new but
believe me it is going to revolutioaize the software industry. For now
it is not making money for Sun and I am sure it will not do so for a
while either. Sun is practically giving that away free!
But what it does for Sun is to open up new doors of acceptance for
its technology. NC's are coming out. You can write highly
sophisticated software applications that can be installed on a server
and accessed by thousands of NC's and run as if you had installed
the same application on your own PC. NC's will be the PC's of the
future supported by powerful servers provided by Sun (or anyone
else who want to play in that game)!
I hear a lot about wintel, and these other guys making servers and
workstations. As I always say its just like Coke and Pepsi. Coke will
always have compettition, but Coke IS IT! And in this case Sun is
the Coke! Similarly Intel also has compettition including AMD, and
Cyrix. And I just heard that 5 big Japanese semi conductor companies
have come up with a microprocessor 5 times faster than Intel's
new MMX chip with 10% below its cost (mostly due to perhaps Yen's
decline against the $). Although not completed yet these Japanese
companies are competting against Intel and are very optimistic. But
do you really think Intel is going to sit there and do nothing?! I very
much doubt that. The same goes with Sun and anyone that wants
to compete with it.
The foundation of a successful company is based on its people and
the amount of R&D that it spends. And if Sun can go from a company
that Teradyne at one point thought it can not survive to what it is
now in 1997, just imagine what it can do as we go forward to the
year 2000! But believe it there will be bumps on the way but as long
as the foundation is strong nothing can stop it! But just remember
one thing, if you are a day trader rather than an investor Sun may not
be the stock you want to put your money into. But if you are a
serious investor and have at least a 2 to 3 year horizon I believe
Su n is perhaps the best company around to invest and Use the
ignorance and naivity of day traders, short sellers and alike to
buy as many shares as you can. At the end they will be begging you
to buy the shares they sold you at a much much much HIGHER price.
And only then you may just 'consider' selling the shares they sold
you back to them with a HUGE gain!
Regards,
- Addi Jamshidi |
