If it turns out that the business did indeed bottom, we will still see a pullback on any hint that it will be a slow recovery process, or that Asia is having to pull back in. The question is what price will be achieved first, before a correction. we had a strong pullback in the spring of 97, on the road from 22 to 108. It allowed the crowd back in at the mid 40's level as I recall.
My hypothesis is this: when AMAT has a 1.00 quarter, the stock price will be at 120. Fantasy Land follows this path: .10, .12, .18, and .25 in the next 4 quarters. Then .35, .40, .45, .55. Lastly, .65, .75, and a final scramble to 1.00 a quarter or two after. Business will look strong going forward as new plants are being built at a feverish pace 3 years from now, but that will be time to step off the coaster.
You know we are in a manic stage again when bozo's like me start with the 120! stock price crapola. |
