Hi Len,
>>Obviously, TA can't predict rumor, but how does it incorporate it into its models?
You're right, TA can't predict rumor. But it can help you recognize when an existing trend is likely to change (absent major external shocks such as buy-out rumors etc.), which covers 99% of the time.
>>I am merely commenting on today's action in contrast to the technical indicators you posted, which were all negative.
Yes, many of the western TA indicators I wrote about last night were still bearish. And absent today's rumors thay may have provided accurate guidance. However, I bought FORE twice yesterday, @13 1/8 (limit buy) and 13 3/4 (buy stop). A few others here did likewise for similar reasons - a belief in long term fundamentals combined with a technical analysis of FORE's past trading patterns. For 2 weeks I've been writing about FORE's downtrend, predicting a bottom of 13 based on retracement and support, and outlining my buy/sell strategy.
Yesterday's candlestick was a bullish hammer at a key resistance level - it doesn't get any better than that. That western TA didn't corroborate the buy signal indicated by the candlesticks simply indicates the value of doing both, in my opinion. I've seen it work both ways. It's particularly nice when both methods are in agreement, and they often are within a day or two or three.
Today's unexpected news/rumor is just mana from heaven, assuming it continues.
INTL bought SHVA cheap last month and may feel pressure to beat LU to the punch, who knows. I would think FORE is got to fetch at least $20 for the deal to go down, and $25 and $30 aren't out of the question.
Then again I'm long so I'm probably biased.....
ed
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