JW:
I think you are the only bear left on the thread and that concerns me.
Thanks for the words, it concerns me as well. If we've seen the turn from the lows, and I do not think we'll revisit the lows (apart from some external market event which I could not possibly forecast), then I have to wonder about my abilities to trade this industry. What this really boils down to is that I may now have to conclude that any skill I had in 96/97 had more to do with luck than skill. I'm not so much shaking my head at AMAT because I've always expected to go long after the turn, but I'm shaking my head at ASYT, TER, and others which I had planned to go long in, and which have turned up significantly harder and faster than I could have possibly anticipated. ASYT positively boggles given their business conditions. I suppose I'm kicking myself (like aki) for missing the greatest 6 weeks since 1982.
I am still bear-ish short-term on AMAT, now also because of valuation concerns, not just the business conditions. I still have my list of conditions that must occur before opening a large long position, but I think it's too late to look for any significant M&A activity... again, the valuations have run away a bit. I'm still looking at the back-end for upturn confirmation, and although INTC has said some things that bode less than well viz their relationship with KLIC, KLIC is still the barometer.
I edited my previous post and deleted references to my plans for going long as I didn't want to be seen as a jinx... but I'll start looking depending on how things go in the December time frame.
F. |
