Just when you think the move to 300 MM will be great for AMAT you get an article like this. What do our technology gurus on the thread have to say? Agree or disagree. Jeff
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300MM Wafer Transition to Have Negative Impact on Equipment Market Says the Information Network
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NEW TRIPOLI, PA. (Nov. 18) BUSINESS WIRE -Nov. 18, 1998--The move to 300mm wafers by IC manufacturers will have a negative impact on the processing equipment market, according to the report 300mm/Copper/Low-K Convergence: Timing, Trends, Issues, Market Analysis, recently published by The Information Network, a New Tripoli, PA-based market research company.
"The principal motivation behind the move to 300mm wafers is the prospect of 20 - 40% cost reduction in manufacturing each chip compared to 200mm wafers," notes Dr. Robert N. Castellano, President of The Information Network. "The saving is a result of 2.25 more chips per month on the larger wafer after spending only 1.5 times more to build and equip."
In order to validate the high cost of demonstrating 300mm equipment tools ($1 million per demonstration borne by equipment manufacturers) International Sematech members, 10 from the U.S. and five from Europe and Asia, have largely promised chip equipment suppliers that they won't build any new 200mm wafer fabs.
These IC manufacturers include: AMD (NYSE:AMD), Lucent Technologies (NYSE:LU), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Motorola (NYSE:MOT), TI (NYSE:TXN), Siemens, STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM), Philips (NYSE:PHG), Hyundai, and TSMC.
"About 20 new fabs and 10 retrofits each year account for most of the IC production equipment sold. But with the boom and bust overcapacity cycles that have been occurring in the IC industry every three years or so, the 2.25 times more chips on a 300mm wafer will negatively impact fab construction to the point that only 10 fabs will be needed each year through the first half of the next decade," according to Dr. Castellano.
While large equipment manufacturers such as Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Novellus (NASDAQ:NVLS) will feel the shockwaves, the brunt of the drop off in new fab construction will be felt by small equipment manufacturers.
Nevertheless, there will be a long trailing edge of IC manufacturing on 200mm and 150mm wafers, which will require updated equipment at every generation change.
The Information Network is a leading consulting and market research company addressing the semiconductor, computer, and telecommunications industries.
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