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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: orkrious who wrote (20238)11/19/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: FJB  Read Replies (3) of 25960
 
Jay,

It is possible for stepper companies to ship more product without a corresponding increase in investment in mask-making equipment. It would simply mean longer leadtimes for the masks themselves. This is probably exactly what both captive and merchant mask shops are waiting for. They want to be absolutely certain that demand is there, before going out and spending $10M on an advanced mask-making tool or an expensive upgrade. Their caution is understandable in this environment.

However, what I heard in the ETEC CC concerning Japanese cap. ex., their business, and the underutilization in Taiwan indicates there are still some dark clouds hanging over the industry. On the bright side, what cap. ex. spending remains is being directed almost exclusively towards the high-end(0.25&#181m and under).

The denouement comes in early '99, when we find out if the current strength in chip revenues is sustainable, or just the typical seasonal phenomenon. My opinion is that chip sales will continue to be strong in '99.

Bob
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