Although sounding like a sword to voodoo artists and prephets of doom and gloom on the other side of bull/bear divide, I am a very modest person when I come across the real talent, I have posted the names of real talent many a time and people I respect on SI on my thread fwiw. I respect views of people who are better than mine and I listen to them market is one hell of difficult place and I try to listen to vision and talent and that is what every trader should do , for me I am following this gentleman and have been posting his views which are very pertinent, I will call him deep throat until he comes in open, his reasoning is based on facts and his trades are professional, I will like to welcome the 'anonymous' on this thread and I will like to tell him he has all our attention.. please free to post anytime..
Thursday, Nov 19 1998 5:41AM ET
Hello Ike,
The reason I PM you is because as a 'trial member', I'm not give access to post in your forum but anonymity is fine with me; adds a level of mystery <g>. Why am I only a trial member(have been for a while)? because I'm too cheap <ggg> to pay for what I can read for free. <gg> If I have something I feel I can contribute then I'll PM or email the individual.
Now, in regards to your comments about "...if this is a common knowledge that the trap and surprise factor just disappears..."
My point back is that I don't see the open interest on puts increasing as much as the calls. Why are people not buying more puts cheap? Most bears have probably been beaten into hibernation that they won't touch a put so close to expiry (Oct 15 is still too vivid in their minds) <ggg> still sore from 'bhambo'. Yes the MM made gazillions from writing puts that are now worthless so are the MM going to be 'nice' and give back some to the call buyers by closing at the HIGHS on FRI??? They might... but it goes against the market driving force of GREED.
Ike, you noticed the mkt volume has been comparatively low specially post rate cut. ie the decreasing weekly volume on ibm's recent rally to all time highs. This leads me to deduct that it won't take much selling to knock ibm back a bit which would knock the indexes and so forth. I just got a feeling that the MM are saving their selling power for the sheep to take this market higher so they can sell from a higher point. I think the MM are going to bhambo the late buyers with a surprise; isn't that usually the case? Volume breeds volume and when the late buyers eventually sell after feeling the pain over the weekend then the MM will buy it back cheaper than what they sold from the top. Diabolical scenario: They sell off on Fri open trapping the longs. The longs get an immediate loss before they get a chance to sell their calls. Any puts for sale will have a huge premium tacked on. The MM wins again, both ways. <g>
Perhaps my basic psychology on the markets over simplify the possible outcomes but just like Oct 8 when few wanted to buy calls now few want to buy puts. At this junction, the puts offer less risk than the calls.
Well Ike, you have a nice day in which ever country you are at (hard to keep up with your jet setting life <ggg>). I'm going to take a 'nap' before the markets open in a few hours. Oh if you hear from the 'pits' that my hypothesis on the put play is very unlikely, I would appreciate it if you would e-mail me about it.
My e-mail is ------------------(private)
Regards,
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