Thanks 007. Nuc, Dr. Thin...I'm feeling exactly the same as you concerning this market and my portfolio. I said to myself that I would pick up QCOM in the 40's and CSCO in the 40's if they ever got there...they did, but I was too concerned about the market...you know the rest. I'm not losing any sleep over all this because I know how fast capital can be lost. But still, this madness is very painful to watch.
A note from a friend of mine concerning this situation. I voiced my concern of the falling dollar and deflation. Comments?
<H>
------------
Where did you learn your economics? As the rate of borrowing
drops, there will be no demand for cheaper dollars? Come on partner, I don't
know about the rest of the world, but didn't you just refinance your home
because of the stimulus of lower money costs? Why are the guys who are coming
to my house to set up this kitchen remodel so overworked? They say everyone
wants to remodel. I wonder why? Even the deadbeat across the street who parks
cars on his lawn is remodeling his kitchen, and he didn't even have to wait
for his mother to die before he could collect her insurance to do it!
I agree that Greenspan reduced the cost of borrowing for greater reasons than
just you, me, and the guy across the street. I know that the dollar will
drift lower because of reduced interest rates. But I also know that foreigh
economies that would otherwise be in trouble because they can't afford to pay
their bills, can now borrow money cheaper than before until they can
renegotiate their debt or be overthrown either by violence or via the vote.
This won't be because of the action of US banks alone, but by banks all over
the world that are forced to lower their rates because of the Fed's action.
I think your thinktank has been seeing dark clouds
for so long they no longer recognize a sunray when they see one. Remember, a
lot of former gurus are buried in the wake of the past bull market because
they were so used to being bearish that they couldn't see the the bull that
ran them down.
We are only about 50 percent invested in the present market, and I think we
will probably stay that way until after the first of the year. Everything we
have in the market is in my brokerage accounts, so we can get out fast, if
necessary. I think the bubble will burst next year, but I do not believe it
will be with a bang. I believe the US economy is strong enough to weather
this storm and that the European Union will bring new strength and order to
world markets. What I see on the dark side is continued reduced earnings, and
that is what will either cause the market to fall, or trade within a limited
range until earnings can once again catch up. |
