How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 493.80

-2.7%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: rudedog who wrote (12360)	11/19/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: paul	Read Replies (1) of 74651

"This is well documented... this is widely known and had been predicted inside those companies in 1995 based on the relative growth rates. " hmm..i think weve discussed this before and im not convinced without some numbers to back this up especially if they are so well documented - it just smacks of the whole "wintel is taking over the world so why bother buying anything else?" FUD that Microsoft and the industry get caught up in. I'm not saying your wrong but i havent seen these numbers and especially if your saying that their true based upon "relative growth rates" predicted in 1995 i think there more conjecture than facts. I have worked at one of the vendors you mention during this time frame where i was in a positon to know these numbers and i never saw that this was the case. Specifically you say that "...Oracle crossed over in 1997 in revenue but a lot earlier in units .. This is not just the Oracle Apps business - it's true for the database sales as well..." Oracle didnt start shipping Apps on NT until the last month of the last quarter of FY'97 (i assume your using fiscal vs. calendar years). It got a very small revenue stream from apps on NT in 1997 so this is simply not true for applications. Again its possible that in calendar year '97 oracle pushed everything onto NT - but this is not the ancedotal evidence im hearing - in fact i am hearing the exact opposite - example: Sun just won the Saudi Aramco deal the biggest SAP/Oracle implementation in the world and currently has the largest Oracle Applications site - Lucky Goldstar from Korea - over 4,000 concurrent seats. I havent seen a NT site bigger than 300 concurrent seats - are you counting clients seats (i.e - windows clients off a unix server)? which is a pretty typical configuration. I'll try to dig up some #'s to see where the market stands - i would appreciate it if you could do the same.

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