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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 232.46

-1.2%

11:39 AM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (26560)	11/19/1998 11:55:00 PM
From: Dr. Bob	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Ian, FWIW, IMO this is a blip. How can billings get to be substantial until new fabs are announced? Sure, BtB will go up as people need to get spares and move to .18 and below, but this is surely spotty activity, and nowhere near the magnitude needed to make AMAT or anyone else in the industry solidly profitable again, except perhaps some niche companies such as ETEC - and they aren't too excited yet. I'm not an unreconstructed bear; it may be worth getting in if one truly believes the new fab announcements are right around the corner. And who knows? There doesn't appear to be one analyst out there who has called the industry turns consistently - nor one company CEO. So we all take our chances. I just don't believe this move in the billings is very exciting. It's the snapback from no activity for the previous quarter, but it may not be any indication of the months to come. Just to provide the other side of the argument! Bob

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