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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF)
CREAF 0.4480.0%Dec 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: Dennis G. who wrote (12859)11/20/1998 4:35:00 AM
From: Fred Fahmy  Read Replies (2) of 13925
 
CREAF is smokin' in Singapore tonight!! Looks like it closed just a hair under $16 US.

<There won't likely be any significant short interest in this stock.>

I agree. From the numbers I have seen, there never has been a very big short position. I think the effect of short selling on this stock has been greatly exaggerated in the past and used by some supporters to help justify a miserable performance.

<I find it hard to believe that people are worried about CREAF jumping to some "artificially" high price. It's never happened before. Why should it happen now? .>

It could happen "now" if they try to buy back too many shares too quickly. A couple months ago, TALK used a buyback to try and boost their stock (and in that case they were trying to initiate a short squeeze). Instead of acting in a reasonable manner they went crazy and drove the price up from 10 to 15 in about a week. As soon as the buyback was suspended, the stock dropped right back down and actually went below 10 to about 5. If they had been more patient and hadn't been trying to get the shorts to give in (virtually the entire TALK float is shorted), they would have been able to buy back many many more shares. This is just one example in which a very large scale buyback (much bigger than 10%) was completely mis-managed.

<But there is still so much overhead selling pressure that it just won't happen.>

I agree that there will be increasing overhead selling pressure as we get higher unless people actually start to believe in the company and its prospects. Also, the dividend might help get new investors with stronger hands. Still, there are a lot of "old" shareholders which I'm sure are looking to get out.

I think one thing is for certain, CREAF is going into uncharted waters and no one knows exactly how this will all play out. Perhaps investor confidence will finally be achieved now that they know CREAF can defend itself.

So what do you think about today? Gap up?? Looks that way. Too bad CREAF has to watch for 30 minutes while people scoop up shares at a more favorable price. This realy seems unfair, but hey, we can't blame that one on Singapore <ggg>.

FF
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