Zeev, as usual I agree with you. I think the dow could correct up to 5% but the Nasdaq has gone up much higher so I think it could correct 5-10% from here. The internuts have gone up even more and they could correct up to 20%. Do you agree with these numbers? Also, based on the lousy numbers from amat, etec, and pria what do you see for the next 6 months for the semi- equipment makers. IMO the earnings just won't be there and these stocks have rebounded much too much and much too soon. Thus I would expect them to retreat more than the average Nasdaq stock, maybe 20%. But WS seems to love these earnings challenged companies right now, don't ask me why. I also think intel has already priced in most of its good news for '99, as they will continue to have real competition which may effect margins if nothing else. However, this adsl modem incorporated into pc's is the most important and exciting new development in years and may jump start the entire industry. I think networking looks like the surest bet in hi-tech.
I think the correction, if it does occur (and I have my doubts given how insanely bullish everyone is) will be over by the second week in Dec like you say. At that point we probably take off once again, and maybe we don't stop until march or april or something unexpected happens. The lesson from the Aug-Oct correction is that the market can take the worst things you can throw at it, so everyone will now throw everything they've got into the market and I think we head for 11K easy by March. Only possible barrier is some international problem, though it looks like Greenspan and Clinton have done a pretty good job quieting that area. |
