George Gilder - Forbes ASAP Message Board

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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (818)	11/20/1998 10:49:00 AM
From: Charlie Smith	Read Replies (1) of 5853

Frank: My initial response is that nobody can afford to either replace what is there now (which, as you pointed out, would be stupid), or install FTTC. But the limiting factor is not the cost of the fiber, the switches or the backbone, even if you gold-plate all of it. The problem is that there aren't enough backhoes (and drivers) in existence to get the job done economically before wireless becomes a viable alternative. You're right. Money cost is not the only factor, but in an environment where telecom service prices are falling, higher capital costs certainly don't make the proposition more attractive. I don't expect WCOM to duplicate what is there, and therefore the RBOCs are not necessarily the road pizza so many say they are. Sure, Bernie et al will build where they can skim the highest margin RBOC customers, but they literally can't afford to quickly gouge big chunks out of these elephants. In the meantime, DSL is making more rapid progress (see recent CSCO, DELL announcements) and WCOM wants to participate. Charlie

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