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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks
NN 12.64+3.2%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Doug who wrote (7581)11/20/1998 11:38:00 AM
From: pat mudge  Read Replies (2) of 18016
 
Let us assume NN has won the $750m contract by itself. That contract is very likely to be spread out over a 2 year period or more. Thus the added sales for NN amount to $90m/quarter. This Company has to generate near $350m/quarter. So at the very best this would amount to 25% revenue. Whilst this is a good step , it cannot sustain a $8 move in price in one week.

Several points --- first, I wouldn't assume NN will get $750 million, but would take a more conservative $500 as my basis. Spread over 8 quarters is roughly $62 M per Q or $0.35 a share.

And you're saying that isn't significant enough to justify the recent move?

At 25.5 NN's selling at 4.25 X sales. Add $1.40 a year and it's selling at 3.5X.

ASND is currently selling for 8 X sales, FORE at 5 X, and XYLN at 7 X.

You do the math and tell me where NN should be selling.

Later ---

Pat
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